At the G20 summit, major maneuvers in view of Donald Trump’s return to the White House – Technologist

Less than two weeks after his election as US president, Donald Trump will not be attending the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro on Monday, November 18 and Tuesday, November 19. While the Republican is busy putting together his government before taking office on January 20, 2025, it is Joe Biden who is due to bid farewell to his counterparts from the world’s 20 leading economic powers.

From one president to the next, the shadow of the next occupant of the White House will loom over the summit, as the G20 is more than ever the scene of rivalries between the wealthy countries of the North and the emerging countries of the South. The prospect of the former Republican president’s return to power promises to electrify this forum, at a time when there are already many contentious issues, against a backdrop of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

The summit’s host, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, is particularly concerned. After refusing to host Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is the subject of an arrest warrant for war crimes from the International Criminal Court, of which Brazil is a state party, Lula intends to focus on economic and climate issues rather than the conflict in Ukraine. He is likely to be helped in this task by Western leaders, who fear that Trump’s victory will accelerate the fragmentation of the world.

As a prelude to the G20, Emmanuel Macron was due to make a short visit to Argentina on Saturday, November 16, to dine with President Javier Milei, an ultraliberal close to Trump, criticized for his climate-skeptic stance. The Elysée’s stated aim was to “connect Javier Milei with the priorities of the G20.”

President Lula knows that Trump’s return is fraught with threats, both for his country and for his guests. The billionaire could, for example, increase tariffs on Brazilian aluminum and steel, at a time when the Latin American giant’s exports are breaking records, with nearly $30 billion (€28.5 billion) worth of industrial products sold in the US in 2023. This would undermine Lula’s economic record and jeopardize his re-election in 2026.

‘Repositioning Brazil’

The left-wing president anticipates possible pressure from his future US counterpart to grant amnesty to far-right ex-president Jair Bolsonaro. The former head of state (2019-2023) was sentenced in 2023 to eight years’ ineligibility for public office for his attacks on Brazil’s electronic voting system, and is barred from standing in the presidential election in 2026.

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