Ethiopia’s battle to regain access to the sea – Technologist

Abiy Ahmed usually takes advantage of speeches to his army to distill subtle messages for his rivals in the region. However, there was no need to read between the lines on Sunday, September 8, when he presided over a military tribute in Addis Ababa. The Ethiopian prime minister reiterated that his country “won’t negotiate with anyone on Ethiopia’s sovereignty and dignity” and demanded “nationalist patriotism” from its population in order to resist the “foreign powers” he accuses of wanting to “destabilize the region.” It was a martial and threatening statement in line with the war of words being waged in the Horn of Africa.

The region has been in turmoil since the announcement of the maritime agreement between Ethiopia and the self-proclaimed republic of Somaliland, on January 1, 2024, which would give Addis Ababa direct access to the Red Sea. The treaty is stirring up tension because it tramples on Somalia’s sovereignty – Somaliland is not recognized as independent by the international community. In formalizing this agreement, did the Ethiopian head of state realize the extent of the regional upheaval it would provoke? Nine months later, a cold war began in the Horn.

“We’re seeing a rapid realignment of regional alliances and the intervention of foreign powers,” said Cameron Hudson, CIA veteran and security specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. This is in addition to an ongoing invective between neighbors and a proliferation of military cooperation agreements.

Was this escalation avoidable? Obsessed by the maritime question, Addis Ababa has turned it into an “existential issue” in defiance of international law and regional stability. Back in October 2023, during a military parade, Ahmed spoke of his country’s “natural right” to access the sea to free Ethiopians from their “geographical prison.” In his view, the country of some 120 million inhabitants has been the victim of “historical injustices” since losing its Red Sea ports following independence from Eritrea in 1993.

Somalia looks for allies

Under the terms of the agreement with Somaliland, Ethiopia would benefit from a 20-kilometer strip of land for 50 years in order to set up a commercial port and naval base. In exchange, Ethiopia would undertake to recognize the self-proclaimed republic, which unilaterally seceded from Somalia in 1991. This was a red line for Mogadishu.

“The maritime agreement set things off, and we’re currently feeling the tremors,” said a European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, who worries about “the multiplication of hotbeds of tension” in this area already destabilized by the civil war in Sudan and attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea by Yemeni Houthi rebels. Proof of Western chancelleries’ fears, the US special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Mike Hammer, just completed a 10-day trip to the area on Friday, September 13.

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