François Bayrou’s failed gamble – Technologist

François Bayrou eventually managed to form his government before Christmas, as he had promised. But the process was a painful one, and the result falls far short of his ambitions to broaden the base on which he will attempt to secure a majority in Parliament. The team appointed on Monday, December 23, at the end of ten days of negotiations, has an identical perimeter to that put together by his predecessor, Michel Barnier. As the same causes can produce the same effects, the new prime minister is not immune to a no-confidence vote.

Bayrou has long claimed his ability to get Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and progressive liberals to work together. But even if the government includes a diversity of political leanings, his gamble to move the lines of the three-way split of France’s political landscape resulting from the last parliamentary elections has failed.

The main failure lies in the inability to rally the Socialists, even if they also bear their share of responsibility. The prime minister’s proposal to “go over without suspending” the pension reform proved insufficient to secure a commitment from the Socialists not to censure the government. Former socialists turned Macron supporters Manuel Valls (appointed minister for overseas territories) and François Rebsamen (minister of regional planning) will have a hard time convincing people of this government’s left-wing credentials.

The positioning of the right caused fewer problems. Bruno Retailleau was kept at the Interior Ministry, while his predecessor, Gérald Darmanin, was appointed to the Justice Ministry. This decision is nevertheless likely to be interpreted as a provocation for part of the judiciary. During his time at the Interior Ministry, Darmanin had not hesitated to stir up police resentment against a justice system described as too soft.

Dependence on RN

Unlike his predecessor Barnier, Bayrou has opted for strong personalities, capable of embodying the government’s policy with a broader scope of action. This will notably be the case for former prime minister Elisabeth Borne, who has been appointed as the new education minister. As for the appointment of Eric Lombard, current director of the financial institution Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations, as minister of the economy, this is a move aimed at reassuring financial markets in a very complicated budgetary context.

By placing Valls at the top of the list in terms of protocol, Bayrou is sending a signal about the importance of overseas issues at the highest level of government, a few days after the tragedy of Cyclone Chido in the Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte, not to mention the very tense situations in New Caledonia and in Martinique, a French territory in the Caribean.

The most problematic appointment is the one that didn’t happen. Xavier Bertrand claims to have been denied the Ministry of Justice due to opposition from the far-right Rassemblement National. Bayrou has denied this, but the episode does pose questions about the government’s dependence on the goodwill of Marine Le Pen’s party.

As a result, Bayrou now finds himself in as uncomfortable a situation as Barnier, especially as he is starting out with a much lower popularity rating. His general policy speech on January 14 will be a key test of this government’s ability to rise above party politics. With public finances continuing to deteriorate, the economy at a standstill and French exasperation at an all-time high, Bayrou knows he has no room for error.